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The Lancet Healthy Longevity

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match The Lancet Healthy Longevity's content profile, based on 11 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Increasing influenza vaccination rates among care home staff: Economic evaluation of the FluCare intervention within a cluster-RCT

Wagner, A. P.; Risebro, H.; Clark, A.; Stirling, S.; Sims, E.; Bion, V.; Blacklock, J.; Birt, L.; Bryant, R.; Cook, L.; Dean, T.; Wyn Griffiths, A.; Guillard, C.; Holland, R.; Jones, A. P.; Jones, L.; Katangwe-Chigamba, T.; Pitcher, J.; Scott, S.; Wright, D.; Patel, A.

2026-06-09 health economics 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355050 medRxiv
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Introduction Care home (CH) influenza vaccination of staff improves resident health, yet uptake remains low at just over 11% (England, 2025/2026). We report an economic evaluation (EE) of "FluCare", an intervention to increase staff influenza vaccination through: vaccination clinics at CHs; promotional materials; and CH financial incentives. Method Seventy-five CHs were randomised to FluCare or control. A cost-consequence analysis took the influenza vaccination programme funder perspective, but also extended to the National Health Service (NHS) and CH perspective. Costs included: influenza vaccination; administration fee; FluCare components; CH resident NHS utilisation. Outcomes were: staff influenza vaccination rates; staff sickness; and resident mortality. Sensitivity analyses excluded intervention CHs that did not host vaccination clinics. Results Compared to control CHs, adjusted analysis found intervention homes with a mean absolute increase in vaccination rates of 1.8% (95% CI: -6.0%, 10.8%; p=0.572) at an increased cost of {pound}451 (95% CI: {pound}239, {pound}675; p<0.001) to the vaccination programme funders: {pound}249 per additional percentage point (PAPP) per CH. Vaccination clinics were delivered late in the influenza season, with 80% taking place from February 2023. Including only intervention CHs that hosted staff flu vaccination clinics (23/35), increases the mean difference to 10.1% (95% CI: 0.9%, 21.9%; p=0.018) and costs to {pound}805 (95% CI: {pound}603, {pound}1,079; p<0.001): {pound}79 PAPP per CH. Differences between trial arms in other costs and outcomes were marginal and generally non-significant. Conclusions FluCare delivered little improvement when staff flu vaccination clinics did not occur and had little impact on other costs/outcomes. Cost-effectiveness depends on willingness-to-pay for increased staff vaccination, but cost PAPP per CH improved from {pound}249 to {pound}79 when only CHs hosting clinics were considered. Late implementation, likely reduced impact by limiting clinic delivery, as reflected in sensitivity analysis. Future evaluations should implement FluCare earlier in the season.

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Neurogenic dysphagia as an independent driver of hospital length of stay and costs: a Bayesian analysis with geriatric stratification and intervention simulation

Werner, C. J.; Meyer, T.; Pinho, J.; Mall, B.; Schulz, J. B.; Schumann-Werner, B.

2026-04-10 health economics 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350417 medRxiv
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PurposeNeurogenic dysphagia is prevalent in neurological inpatients and associated with adverse outcomes, yet its independent economic impact after adjustment for frailty and functional status remains poorly quantified. We aimed to estimate the independent effect of dysphagia on hospital length of stay (LOS) and costs, to test whether this effect differs between geriatric and non-geriatric patients, and to quantify the probability and magnitude of cost savings from improvements in swallowing function. MethodsWe analysed 10,375 neurological inpatient cases (2021-2024) at a German university hospital. Dysphagia was defined by fiberoptic endoscopic evaluation of swallowing (FEES) or ICD-10 R13 coding (n = 1,382; 13.3%). Bayesian Gamma-log regression with informative priors from historical data and published literature was used to model LOS and total case costs (German DRG), adjusted for age, sex, Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS, R13-adjusted), self-care index ("Selbstpflege-Index", SPI), stroke status, and emergency admission. A geriatric cohort was defined as age [&ge;]70 and adjusted HFRS [&ge;]5 (n = 2,053; 19.8%). Posterior predictive simulation estimated cost savings for hypothetical improvements of 1-3 points on the Functional Oral Intake Scale (FOIS). ResultsAfter comprehensive adjustment, dysphagia was independently associated with 46.5% longer LOS (posterior ratio 1.465; 95% credible interval [CrI] 1.397-1.537) and 28.2% higher total case costs (ratio 1.282; CrI 1.213-1.354). The dysphagia x geriatric interaction was small but credible and ran in opposite directions: slightly attenuated for LOS (interaction ratio 0.908, CrI 0.837-0.986) but slightly amplified for costs (1.096, CrI 1.012-1.185), consistent with complexity-driven DRG grouping in geriatric patients. The absolute economic burden remained larger in the geriatric cohort due to higher baseline costs. In the geriatric cohort, a one-point FOIS improvement yielded a 74.3% posterior probability of LOS-based savings (mean {euro}555/case); at three points, this rose to 84.2% (mean {euro}1,115/case). The direct cost model confirmed high benefit probabilities from the payers perspective (82.6% at {delta}FOIS = 3). ConclusionsNeurogenic dysphagia is an independent and substantial driver of hospital LOS and costs in neurological inpatients, even after adjustment for frailty and functional status. The proportional effect on costs is slightly larger in geriatric patients, while the LOS effect is slightly smaller, consistent with the mechanics of the G-DRG system. Bayesian simulation indicates that improvements in swallowing function carry a high probability of generating cost savings, supporting the characterisation of dysphagia as a modifiable economic target with particular relevance to geriatric neurology.

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The Economic Burden of KCNT1-Related Disorders in the United States: Insights from Caregiver-Reported and EMR-Derived Data

Abuhl, A.; Bryan, B. A.; Wright, M.; Rosenberg, A.; West, J.; Drislane, S.

2026-03-17 health economics 10.64898/2026.03.16.26348524 medRxiv
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BackgroundKCNT1-related disorders are a rare, severe neurogenetic disorder associated with early-onset, treatment-resistant seizures and significant developmental comorbidities. Currently there are no treatment-modifying therapeutics for this condition, and the condition necessitates complex, lifelong care that places a profound financial strain on affected families and healthcare systems. However, data quantifying this economic burden is sparse. ObjectiveTo evaluate the annual cost burden of KCNT1-related disorders in the United States using both caregiver-reported expenditures and electronic medical record (EMR) data, providing a comprehensive analysis of direct, indirect, and out-of-pocket expenses. MethodsA retrospective cohort analysis was conducted using two complementary data sources. In 2025, 34 U.S-based. caregivers from the KCNT1 Epilepsy Foundation registry completed a survey capturing insurance status, medical and non-medical expenses, and indirect costs. Separately, EMR data from 49 U.S.-based patients with KCNT1 variants were extracted from the Citizen Health database. Clinical services were mapped to CPT and HCPCS codes, and costs were calculated using Medicare fee schedules and other publicly available datasets. ResultsCaregiver-reported data revealed that all respondents possessed some form of insurance coverage, primarily through private insurance purchased independently or through their employer, or Medicaid. Nearly half of respondents (18/34) experienced financial hardship, citing high out-of-pocket expenses, medical debt, and loss of income due to caregiving responsibilities, and twelve percent of respondents delayed treatment due to financial strain (n=4). The estimated mean total annual medical cost per family--including direct, indirect, non-medical, and non-covered expenses--ranged from $355,474 to $797,727, based on upper and lower bounds of response categories from 10 respondents. EMR analysis, which only reported on direct medical costs, revealed that average first-year direct medical costs reached $154,389 per patient based on the records from 49 patients. This cost was primarily driven by hospitalizations, medications, and therapeutic procedures. Based on EMR data, direct medical costs declined once the patients reached two years of age and stabilized in subsequent years. Hospitalizations remained the most substantial cost contributor regardless of the age of the patient. ConclusionKCNT1-related disorders imposes a substantial economic burden on families and healthcare systems, particularly in the first year after diagnosis. This study highlights the need for rapid diagnostic procedures, targeted therapies, improved insurance coverage, and legislative support for families managing rare, high-burden conditions. Findings provide essential cost data to support drug development, healthcare planning, and rare disease policy reform. SignificanceThis is the first U.S.-based study to quantify both medical and non-medical costs associated with KCNT1-related disorders using combined caregiver and EMR data. The results highlight the urgency of disease-modifying treatments and equitable access to care, informing clinical trials and advocacy for systemic healthcare support.

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The State of Health Visiting in England: Workforce Composition, Caseloads and Service Delivery

Conti, G.; Weber Costa, G.; D'Mello, D.; Yu, Y.

2026-03-27 health economics 10.64898/2026.03.26.26349382 medRxiv
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Health visiting is England's universal home visiting programme for families with children under five and a key pillar of early intervention policy. Since the 2015 devolution of commissioning to Local Authorities (LAs), the service has faced sustained financial and workforce pressures, yet there is limited systematic evidence on whether resources and delivery have evolved differentially across areas and along the deprivation gradient. Using new Freedom of Information (FOI) data, we estimate how health visiting inputs (spending and workforce) and mandated contact delivery vary in levels and trajectories by baseline deprivation. FOI requests covered 147 English LAs (four pairs submitted joint returns), providing annual 2016-2021 Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) data on Health Visitors (HVs) and Clinical Skill Mix Staff (CSMS), which we link to DHSC Health Visitor Service Delivery Metrics reporting completion of the five mandated 0-5 reviews (New Birth Visits, 6-8 week reviews, 12-month reviews, 2-2.5 year reviews, and 2-2.5 year reviews completed with ASQ-3) and to LA revenue outturn expenditure on mandated and non-mandated 0-5 public health services (real-terms total and per child under five). Between 2016 and 2021, HV FTE fell by around one-fifth while CSMS expanded by roughly one-third, consistent with an overall contraction and a shift toward lower-band staff. To test whether these changes map onto underlying disadvantage, we stratify LAs into tertiles of baseline deprivation using the 2015 Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) and implement a three-part empirical strategy: (i) plotting tertile means over time, (ii) testing within-year cross-sectional differences using parametric and non-parametric methods with pairwise comparisons, and (iii) estimating LA fixed-effects regressions with Year x IDACI interactions under both a flexible year-by-year specification and a parsimonious linear-trend specification to assess differential trajectories. We find persistent cross-sectional gradients in per-child spending that are broadly progressive (more deprived LAs spend more per child on both mandated and non-mandated 0-5 services), while fixed-effects models show little evidence that spending trajectories differ systematically by deprivation. Workforce trends are more uneven: HV FTE declines more slowly and CSMS FTE grows more slowly in more deprived LAs in the linear-trend specification, while per-child HV trajectories show no differential trends. Despite these input differences, completion of mandated contacts is relatively stable across the deprivation gradient; the only consistent differential trend is faster improvement in the 6-8 week review in more deprived areas. Meanwhile, caseload pressure rises, increasing most sharply in the most deprived LAs in the pre-pandemic years, suggesting that completion-based performance measures may mask heterogeneities in service capacity and intensity. Finally, we quantify the resources required to restore recommended caseloads, implying the need for approximately 3,100 additional FTE staff and around 120 million GBP annually (plus training costs).

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Determinants and long-term outcomes of COVID-19 undervaccination: a cohort study of 6.8 million individuals in Lombardy, Italy

Corbetta, A.; Logan, K. M.; Ieva, F.; Di Angelantonio, E.

2026-05-07 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.06.26352509 medRxiv
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BackgroundReceiving fewer COVID-19 vaccine doses than recommended ("undervaccination") may increase risks of death, severe COVID-19, and post-COVID condition. However, population-scale evidence from Italy remains limited. We aimed to characterise determinants of undervaccination in Lombardy and to quantify its association with mortality, severe COVID-19, and long COVID outcomes. MethodsWe conducted a population-based study including all residents of Lombardy aged [&ge;]30 years who were alive on June 1, 2022 (n=6,836,566), and followed them until Dec 31, 2024. Vaccine deficit was defined as the difference between age-specific recommended doses (three for <60 years; four for [&ge;]60 years) and doses received, and was modelled as a time-varying exposure. Outcomes were all-cause mortality, severe COVID-19 (hospitalisation or COVID-19-related death), and long COVID defined using symptom-based ICD codes recorded [&ge;]1 month after infection. Determinants of undervaccination were assessed using multivariable logistic regression. Age-stratified Cox models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs). Counterfactual vaccination scenarios were simulated using fitted survival models. ResultsOn June 1, 2022, 1,668,014 individuals (24{middle dot}4%) were not up to date with recommended vaccination. Undervaccination was more frequent in younger adults, women, individuals born outside Europe, rural residents, and those with high comorbidity burden. During follow-up, 265,383 deaths, 52,121 severe COVID-19 events, and 23,780 long COVID events occurred. In adults aged [&ge;]60 years, increasing vaccine deficit was associated with progressively higher risks of mortality (HR up to 1{middle dot}63) and severe COVID-19 (HR up to 2{middle dot}16). Associations were weaker in younger adults. For long COVID, effect estimates were modest and sensitive to outcome definition. Simulated universal booster coverage in adults [&ge;]60 years was associated with substantial reductions in expected deaths and severe COVID-19 events. ConclusionAbout one in four adults in Lombardy was undervaccinated by mid-2022. An increasing vaccine deficit was associated with a higher risk of severe COVID-19 and mortality, particularly in older adults. Sustaining booster uptake in high-risk groups remains central to mitigating the COVID-19 burden.

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2024/25 end-of-season KP.2 vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalization in older adults: a test-negative study in Quebec, Canada

Carazo, S.; Skowronski, D. M.; Sauvageau, C.; Talbot, D.; Racine, E.; Brousseau, N. M.

2026-04-04 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.02.26350050 medRxiv
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We evaluated 2024/25 KP.2 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 hospitalization among adults >60 years old eligible for publicly-funded vaccination during fall and/or spring campaigns in the province of Quebec, Canada. We included Quebec residents tested for COVID-19-compatible symptoms in an acute-care hospital between October 13, 2024 (epi-week 2024-42) and August 23, 2025 (2025-34), linking vaccine, hospital, chronic diseases and laboratory administrative records to assess VE through test-negative design. We compared the odds of being COVID-19 test-positive versus test-negative among vaccinated versus non-vaccinated participants, adjusting for sex, age, comorbidities, place of residence, and epidemiological week. Overall, 49,949 (43%) participants were vaccinated. Over an analysis period spanning up to ten months, including median time since vaccination of 16 weeks (interquartile range 9-24 weeks), VE was 34% overall, declining from 43% <8 weeks to negligible by the 32nd week post-vaccination. Findings confirm meaningful but short-lived COVID-19 vaccine protection against hospitalization in older adults.

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One-year within-trial and lifetime-horizon modeled health economic evaluation of the risk-stratified Prediabetes Lifestyle Intervention Study (PLIS) for prediabetes remission in Germany

Mohebbi, D.; Vomhof, M.; Montalbo, J.; Winkels, A. K.; Gontscharuk, V.; Chernyak, N.; Dintsios, C.-M.; Kairies-Schwarz, N.; Stark, R.; Emmert-Fees, K. M. F.; Fan, M.; Schick, R.; Schürmann, A.; Bornstein, S.; Heni, M.; Stefan, N.; Jumpertz von Schwartzenberg, R.; Blüher, M.; Lechner, A.; Clavel, J.; Kopf, S.; Szendrödi, J.; Roden, M.; Wagner, R.; Fritsche, A.; Birkenfeld, A. L.; Icks, A.

2026-05-26 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.22.26353768 medRxiv
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Background Lifestyle interventions can increase the probability of remission of prediabetes to normal glucose tolerance, but their economic value remains unclear. We assessed the within-trial and lifetime-horizon modeled cost-effectiveness of intensive and conventional lifestyle interventions in risk-stratified participants with prediabetes. Methods A health economic evaluation was conducted alongside the 12-month multicenter PLIS trial (n=1,105). High-risk participants were randomized to intensive (HR-INT) or conventional (HR-CONV); low-risk participants to conventional lifestyle intervention (LR-CONV) or control (only short single consultation; LR-CTRL) with risk stratification based on insulin secretion, insulin sensitivity, and liver fat content. Within-trial analyses estimated incremental costs per additional remission to normoglycemia and per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Lifetime cost-effectiveness was modelled using a four-state Markov Model. Findings At 12 months, HR-INT and LR-CONV increased remission compared with their respective comparators. The incremental cost per additional remission was {euro}7,081 (95% CI: dominated-47,277) for HR-INT and {euro}4,278 (1,312-11,793) for LR-CONV from a health insurance perspective. A willingness-to-pay of {euro}22,000 (HR-INT) and {euro}7,500 (LR-CONV) per additional remission corresponded to 90% probability of cost-effectiveness. Neither intervention was cost-effective in terms of QALYs gained within the 12-months period. Lifetime modelling suggested that both HR-INT and LR-CONV are not only cost-effective, but also cost-saving, relative to HR-CONV and LR-CTRL, respectively. Also in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, most simulations indicated dominance (71.7% for HR and 88% for LR). Interpretation Based on short-term economic evaluation, the interventions assessed were cost-effective regarding additional participants with remission, not for incremental QALYs gained. Lifetime modelling suggests cost savings for both risk groups. Targeting populations with lifestyle interventions to achieve prediabetes remission seems to generate good value for money in the long term.

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The Potential Clinical and Economic Impact of a Combination COVID-19 and Influenza Vaccine (mRNA-1083) in Canada

Fust, K.; Kohli, M.; Cartier, S.; Van de Velde, N.; Mehta, D.; Blake, M.

2026-05-20 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.18.26353482 medRxiv
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Aims: COVID-19 and influenza continue to impose a substantial burden on the Canadian healthcare system, particularly among adults aged greater than 65 years. This study compared the clinical and economic outcomes of a Stand-alone vaccination strategy with separate influenza and COVID-19 vaccines versus a Combination strategy incorporating mRNA-1083, an investigational vaccine targeting both infections. Methods: The study adopted the public healthcare payer perspective and adapted a previously published static model to predict COVID-19 and influenza infections across a one-year time horizon. Relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) for mRNA-1083 against COVID-19 compared with the stand-alone vaccine (SPIKEVAX) was based on the pivotal clinical trial of mRNA-1083s COVID-19 component (mRNA-1283). For influenza, no incremental VE was assumed versus the adjuvanted stand-alone vaccine (FLUAD). Infections were modeled independently. Clinical outcomes included symptomatic infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. The economically justifiable price (EJP) was calculated at the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. mRNA-1083 uptake was assumed to yield absolute increases in COVID-19 and influenza coverage by 10% and 3%, respectively. Results: Compared with the Stand-alone strategy, the Combination strategy was projected to reduce the number of COVID-19-related symptomatic infections, hospitalizations, and deaths (n=71,074; 5,008; 935, respectively), and corresponding influenza outcomes (n=3,985; 362; 69, respectively). The use of mRNA-1083 within the Combination strategy generated a cost-savings of $90,440,471 in vaccine administration fees and an EJP of $304 per dose. Results were sensitive to rVE, coverage, administration fees, mortality and incidence. Limitations: mRNA-1083s rVE is being evaluated in clinical trials and the impact of mRNA-1083 on vaccine coverage and administration fees is uncertain. Conclusions: mRNA-1083 may reduce the burden of COVID-19 and influenza in adults aged greater than 65 years in Canada, while offering good economic value because it has the potential to increase coverage and VE while reducing administration fees.

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Impact of acute hospitalisation on development of long-term disease and health inequality: a longitudinal population study

Wan, Y. I.; Pearse, R. M.; Prowle, J. R.

2026-04-27 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.25.26351727 medRxiv
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ObjectiveTo examine the impact of acute illness on long-term health and describe any differences in these associations between socioeconomic and ethnic groups. DesignLongitudinal population study. SettingLinked primary and secondary care data recorded in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). ParticipantsAdults ([&ge;]18 years) residing in England registered with a primary care general practice (GP) between 1st January 2012 and 31st December 2022 who have not opted out of inclusion into CPRD and linked data sources. Socioeconomic deprivation was defined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and ethnicity by UK census 2011 definitions. Main outcome measuresThe primary outcome was new long-term disease and multimorbidity (two or more long-term diseases). We describe incidence of hospitalisation for acute illness as the exposure. ResultsWe included 18,329,659 people, with 9,339,394 (51.0%) women, 7,430,555 (40.5%) people from the most deprived deciles (IMD 1-4) and 3,009,717 (16.4%) from a minority ethnic group. 6,038,272 (32.9%) people experienced hospitalisation for acute illness. Hospitalisation was associated with increased onset of long-term disease in those alive at the end of follow up (41.1% hospitalised vs 18.7% not hospitalised; adjusted HR 2.48 (2.47 to 2.48)). Compared to non-hospitalised, those who had been hospitalised were more likely to change from being disease free at baseline to having a new long-term disease (12.9% vs. 7.5%), develop multimorbidity (4.7% vs. 1.1%), or transition to multimorbidity if they had pre-existing disease (8.1% vs. 1.8%). Age-standardised hospitalisation rates were highest in the most deprived decile and in people with Black ethnicity. Comparative hospitalisation ratio for IMD 1 compared to IMD 10 ranging from 1.78 in 2018 to 1.96 in 2021 and for Black ethnicity compared to White ranging from 1.03 in 2017 to 1.08 in 2021. ConclusionsAcute hospitalisation is a key stage in the development of long-term disease and may be an underutilised opportunity for intervention to change healthy life trajectory and reduce health inequality. Summary boxO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSO_LIWhilst inequalities in rates of long-term disease are well described, there is little evidence to describing the presence or absence of inequalities in significant acute illness and acute hospitalisation. C_LIO_LIThe consequences of acute hospitalisation for acute illness on development of long-term disease are not well understood. C_LI What this study addsO_LIAcute hospitalisation is strongly associated with subsequent risk of developing long-term disease and multimorbidity. C_LIO_LIAge-standardised hospitalisation rates increased with higher levels of deprivation and was highest for people with Black ethnicity. C_LIO_LIPeople from socioeconomically deprived backgrounds and minority ethnic groups experience a reduced healthy life expectancy following acute hospitalisation. C_LI How this study might affect research, practice, or policyO_LIAcute hospitalisation may be an important marker for inequalities in healthy life expectancy and could be a key opportunity to better manage long-term health to reduce further inequalities. C_LI

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A Return-on-Investment Analysis of a Community-Based Diabetes Self-Management Program In New York City

Goldwater, J. C.; Harris, Y.; Das, S. K.; Fernandez Galvis, M. A.; Maru, D.; Jordan, W. B.; Sacaridiz, C.; Norwood, C.; Kim, S. S.; Neustrom, K.

2026-04-23 health economics 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351481 medRxiv
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OBJECTIVETo evaluate the return on investment (ROI) of a community-based Diabetes Self-Management Program (DSMP) enhanced with health-related social needs (HRSN) screening and referrals, implemented by the New York City (NYC) Department of Health and Mental Hygiene with three community-based organizations in highly-impacted, under-resourced neighborhoods. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSA retrospective cost-benefit analysis from a public-sector payer perspective was conducted among 171 adults with type 2 diabetes who completed a six-week, peer-led DSMP delivered by community health workers (CHWs) in English, Spanish, and Korean during 2018-2019. A time-driven, activity-based costing model captured direct implementation costs, CHW workforce turnover, and administrative overhead. Monetized benefits included avoided diabetes-related complications, reductions in self-reported emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations, and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains from improved medication adherence. Univariate sensitivity analyses tested robustness under conservative assumptions. RESULTSTotal program costs were $179,224; monetized benefits totaled $1,824,213, yielding a net benefit of $1,644,989 and an ROI of 918%--approximately $10 returned per $1 invested. Excluding QALY gains, ROI remained 551%. Self-reported ED visits declined from 149 to 82 and hospitalizations from 93 to 24 in the six months following intervention. Over 80% of participants reported housing instability; 72% were Medicaid-covered and 16% uninsured. Sensitivity analyses confirmed a positive ROI under all conservative scenarios. CONCLUSIONSA CHW-led, community-based DSMP integrated with HRSN screening and referrals delivered substantial economic and public health value among adults facing housing instability and structural barriers to care. Findings support inclusion of DSMP as a covered benefit in Medicaid managed care, value-based payment arrangements, and housing access initiatives to advance equitable diabetes outcomes.

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Mental healthcare utilisation and costs before and after dementia diagnosis: evidence from electronic health records

Eaglestone, G. L.; stoner, c.; pacella, r.; McCrone, P.

2026-06-03 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354695 medRxiv
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Objectives: To describe secondary mental healthcare utilisation and associated costs among patients diagnosed with dementia or mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Design: Retrospective cohort study using routinely collected electronic health record data. Setting: Secondary mental healthcare services within a large NHS mental health provider in South London, UK. Participants: Adults aged 18 years or older with a recorded diagnosis of dementia or MCI between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2020. Patients surviving less than one year after diagnosis were excluded. The final cohort comprised 16,081 individuals. Primary and secondary outcome measures: Service utilisation and NHS mental health service costs during the 12 months before and after diagnosis, including inpatient, outpatient and memory clinic contacts. Results: The proportion of patients with at least one recorded mental health service contact declined from 91% in the 12 months before diagnosis to 69% after diagnosis. Among service users, mean NHS mental health costs increased from GBP 1,497 to GBP 2,177 per person following diagnosis (mean increase GBP 680; p<0.001), driven primarily by inpatient care. Dementia diagnosis, younger age, male gender, living alone, greater cognitive impairment and higher clinical symptom burden were independently associated with higher costs. Ethnic differences in service use and costs were also observed. Conclusions: Although overall service engagement declined following diagnosis, costs increased among those continuing to access care, indicating greater intensity of service use. Understanding patterns of secondary mental healthcare utilisation and associated costs may help inform planning and resource allocation within dementia services.

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The association between severity and aetiology of chronic liver disease and seasonal influenza vaccination uptake in adults: a retrospective cohort study using English primary care data (2019-2024)

Haeusler, I. L.; Etoori, D.; Campbell, C. N. J.; McDonald, S. L. R.; Lopez Bernal, J.; Mounier-Jack, S.; Kasstan-Dabush, B.; McDonald, H. I.; Parker, E. P. K.; Suffel, A.

2026-04-11 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.08.26350434 medRxiv
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BackgroundIn England, individuals with chronic liver disease (CLD) are among those with the lowest seasonal influenza vaccine uptake despite being at elevated risk of severe influenza. We examined the relationship between CLD severity and aetiology, and influenza vaccine uptake in England. MethodsA retrospective cohort study of adults (18-115 years) using Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care data was conducted for five seasons (2019/20-2023/24). Poisson regression was used to estimate rates of uptake by CLD severity (clinical diagnoses categorised as low, moderate, or severe) and aetiology (alcohol-related, viral-related, and diagnoses in the Green Book guidelines). FindingsThere were 182,174-277,470 with CLD per cohort. Among those who were additionally age-eligible for vaccination, uptake was 71{middle dot}1-79{middle dot}7% compared to 30{middle dot}9-40{middle dot}5% in those not additionally age-eligible. Among individuals below age eligibility without other comorbidities, severity was associated with higher uptake (incidence rate ratio [IRR] moderate 1{middle dot}80, 95% CI 1{middle dot}69-1{middle dot}90; severe 1{middle dot}95, 95% CI 1{middle dot}84-2{middle dot}08 in 2023/24); there was no effect in those with at least one additional comorbidity (moderate 1{middle dot}05, 95% CI 0{middle dot}99-1{middle dot}10; severe 1{middle dot}05, 95% CI 1{middle dot}01-1{middle dot}09). Alcohol- and viral-related aetiology were also associated with increased uptake in those not additionally age-eligible. Among individuals meeting age eligibility without additional comorbidities, severity was associated with a reduced uptake (moderate 0{middle dot}81, 95% CI 0{middle dot}73-0{middle dot}90; severe 0{middle dot}79, 95% CI 0{middle dot}74-0{middle dot}85), with attenuation in those with additional comorbidities (moderate 0{middle dot}99, 95% CI 0{middle dot}94-1{middle dot}04; severe 0{middle dot}91, 95% CI 0{middle dot}89-0{middle dot}94). InterpretationCLD severity and aetiology were important determinants of uptake in the absence of additional indications for influenza vaccination. Future research should prioritise understanding facilitators and barriers to vaccine uptake in individuals with CLD, particularly for those at highest risk of severe infection. FundingNIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Vaccines and Immunisation (NIHR200929/NIHR207408). Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSWe searched PubMed up to June 2025 using the terms "chronic liver disease", "cirrhosis", "hepatitis", "influenza vaccination", "seasonal influenza", and "vaccine uptake". Previous research, including national data from England, has shown that people with chronic liver disease tend to have lower seasonal influenza vaccine uptake than individuals with other medical comorbidities which qualify for vaccination such as diabetes, chronic kidney disease or immunosuppression. The reasons for low influenza vaccine uptake in people with chronic liver disease are not well understood, and it is therefore difficult for vaccination providers, principally primary care services in England, to tailor interventions aimed to increase uptake. Qualitative research involving individuals aged less than 65 years living in England with clinical risk comorbidities, most commonly diabetes, found that chronic disease management pathways inconsistently provided information about the importance of influenza vaccination as part of chronic disease management. Individuals with long-term conditions reported low perceived risk of influenza infection and limited awareness of vaccine benefits as important reasons for non-uptake. We hypothesised that the severity and aetiology of chronic liver disease may be important determinants of uptake. Added value of this studyWe conducted a population-based study to examine how chronic liver disease severity and aetiology influence seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in adults in England. Using primary care electronic health record data from five consecutive influenza seasons (2019/20-2023/24), we found that more severe chronic liver disease was associated with a substantial increase in vaccine uptake in those without additional indications for seasonal influenza vaccination (age-based eligibility or other qualifying clinical risk comorbidities). Alcohol- and viral-related aetiology were also associated with increased uptake in those who were not additionally age-eligible for vaccination. In contrast, severity, alcohol- and viral-related underlying aetiology were associated with a modest reduction in uptake for individuals with chronic liver disease who also qualified for vaccination due to age. Implications of all the available evidenceDespite clear clinical vulnerability to infection and a substantially elevated risk of morbidity and mortality following infection, a large proportion of adults with chronic liver disease, particularly those aged under 65 years, remain unvaccinated against seasonal influenza each year. This study suggests that chronic liver disease severity and underlying aetiology are important determinants of uptake in individuals not meeting age-based vaccine eligibility, particularly in those without additional clinical risk comorbidities. This could be because of differing perceptions of influenza risk, or due to varying degrees of interaction with healthcare specialists as part of chronic disease management. In individuals who met age-based vaccination eligibility, the negative effect of severity on influenza vaccine uptake may reflect greater barriers to accessing vaccination services by those with more complex health needs, or competing medical priorities for long-term condition management during consultations. To inform targeted vaccination strategies, future research should aim to understand the specific facilitators and barriers to influenza vaccination experienced by individuals with chronic liver disease. This should include perspectives of individuals with different disease severity, across different age groups, in those with and without additional co-morbidities.

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Malnutrition and healthcare costs in older adults in Sweden: a longitudinal study based on a population-based cohort and Swedish registers

Xia, X.; Balcha, Y. M.; Carballo-Casla, A.; Aho, E.; Willers, C.; Rydwik, E.; Calderon-Larranaga, A.; Kugelberg, S.; Berggreen-Clausen, A.; Garpsater, J.; Jonsson, L.

2026-06-01 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354412 medRxiv
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Background The study aimed to estimate healthcare costs associated with malnutrition in Swedish older adults. Methods We conducted a cohort study using data from the population-based Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K, N = 2982), a geriatric inpatient cohort of complex patients (N = 7680), and a cohort of individuals with cognitive impairment from the Swedish Register of Cognitive/Dementia Disorders (SveDem, N = 64192). At risk of malnutrition and malnutrition were ascertained by the Mini-Nutritional Assessment in SNAC-K and the geriatric inpatient cohort. In SveDem, body mass index was used for identifying malnutrition. Healthcare resource use was derived from regional and national registers. Associations between malnutrition and healthcare costs in 2024 Swedish kronor (SEK) were analyzed using two-part models and generalized linear regression models, adjusting for demographic and clinical factors. Findings In the community, at risk of malnutrition and malnutrition were associated with an increase in annual healthcare costs of 2267 SEK (95% CI: 64,4469) and 1846 SEK (95% CI: -6802,10493), respectively. In geriatric patients, healthcare costs over 6 months in individuals at risk of malnutrition and individuals with malnutrition were 60205 SEK (45613,74798) and 86619 SEK (68362,104875) higher than those without malnutrition. In people with cognitive impairment, malnutrition was associated with higher annual healthcare costs (22170 SEK, 95% CI: 15152,29188). Interpretation Both at risk of malnutrition and malnutrition are associated with higher healthcare costs in Swedish older adults. The study findings are important for informing future economic evaluations of malnutrition interventions in Swedish older adults.

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Frailty progression following severe infections in adults aged 65 years and above in US and England: two matched cohort studies

Asare, K.; Mansfield, K. E.; Gore-Langton, G. R.; Cadogan, S. L.; Barry, E.; Keogh, R.; Lo Re, V.; Rodriguez-Barradas, M. C.; Justice, A. C.; Rentsch, C. T.; Warren-Gash, C.

2026-03-15 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.03.13.26348319 medRxiv
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BackgroundWe investigated frailty progression after severe infections in adults ([&ge;]65 years) in the US and England. MethodsWe conducted parallel matched cohort studies using: US Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS-National, 2008-2019; median age 74 years; 98% male); and English Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2006-2019; median age 76 years; 45% male). Adults hospitalised primarily for infection (i.e., severe infection) were matched in calendar date order to individuals without severe infection on age, sex, care site, and US only, plus race and ethnicity. We measured frailty using VACS Index 2{middle dot}0 (US) and Electronic Frailty Index (eFI; England). We estimated annual conditional mean frailty differences between adults with versus without severe infection using linear regression adjusting for baseline frailty, demographics, lifestyle factors, infection history, and US only, comorbidities. ResultsMean baseline frailty was higher in those with severe infection than those without (US: 57 v 48; England: 0{middle dot}17 v 0{middle dot}12). At Year 1, adjusted mean frailty was higher among adults with severe infections than those without (US: VACS Index +2{middle dot}0, 95% CI 1{middle dot}9-2{middle dot}0; England: eFI +0{middle dot}005, 95% CI 0{middle dot}005-0{middle dot}006). At Years 2-5, adjusted mean frailty remained higher after severe infection; however, compared to Year 1, differences were smaller in US, and larger in England. Effects varied by infection type (strongest for lower respiratory tract infections, meningoencephalitis (UK only), urinary tract infections, and sepsis). InterpretationIndividuals with severe infections had higher frailty at baseline and follow up than those without. Preventing both frailty and infections is important for improving health in older age. FundingWellcome Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSWe searched PubMed (inception to October 27, 2025), for published articles evaluating the association between infections and frailty, with no language restrictions. We used the search terms [(infection OR infectious) AND (frailty OR frail)]. We found fifteen observational studies investigating associations between individual infections (including: HIV, cytomegalovirus, SARS-CoV-2, acute respiratory infection, urinary tract infection, and influenza) and frailty in adults. Frailty measures varied: eight studies used Frieds phenotype index, six used versions of the cumulative deficit index (i.e., Edmonton Frail Scale, FRAIL-NH Scale, Hospital Frailty Risk Score, Clinical Frailty Score, Veterans Affairs Frailty Index, Vulnerable Elders Survey-13), and one study used the Timed Up and Go Test. Results from identified studies were mixed, with nearly half (7/15) reporting a positive association between the infection studied and frailty, and the remaining eight finding no evidence of association. In cross-sectional analyses, HIV, SARS-CoV-2, cytomegalovirus, and urinary tract infection, were each associated with higher mean frailty scores or frailty prevalence. In longitudinal analysis, hospitalisation for acute respiratory infection was followed by higher mean hospital frailty risk scores two years post-discharge. SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with early onset (i.e., higher hazard) of frailty over three years follow-up. However, other studies found no association between HIV, SARS-CoV-2, acute respiratory infection and influenza, and frailty prevalence, incidence, or transition between frailty states. These mixed findings may reflect methodological differences between the studies, including variation in frailty measures, and study limitations. Frailty exists along a continuum of vulnerability, and progression after infection may be an important outcome, yet current evidence is scarce. It remains unclear whether severe infections or different types of infection, are associated with faster frailty deterioration. Similarly, it is uncertain whether post-infection frailty risk varies by pathogen (bacterial, viral, parasitic, fungal), infection type (sepsis, urinary tract infection, skin and soft tissue infection, meningitis/encephalitis, lower respiratory tract, gastroenteritis), or by age, sex, social deprivation, and pre-existing comorbidities. Added value of this studyOur study compared frailty progression over a five-year period between adults aged [&ge;]65 years with severe infection (hospitalisation primarily due to infection) versus comparators without severe infection. We found higher baseline frailty at severe infection onset than in matched comparators. We saw evidence of increased frailty progression over time in people following severe infections compared to those without, however, these differences were small. We also saw higher risk of worsening frailty progression in older adults and those with dementia. Further, worsening frailty progression varied by infection type (strongest for lower respiratory tract infections, meningoencephalitis (UK only), urinary tract infections, and sepsis). Implications of all the available evidenceOur findings underscore the importance of both frailty and infection prevention in improving health in older age. Additional studies are required to explore other wider life-course influences on frailty, to guide the development of comprehensive preventive strategies.

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REPROGRAM: REsilience PROmotion with GeRoprotectors: AssessMent of biological effect. Rationale and protocol for a trial of biological effect.

Wilson, D.; Acharjee, A.; Duggal, N. A.; Hombrebueno, J. R.; Jones, S. W.; Lewis, J. W.; de Magalhaes, J. P.; Martinez-Serrato, Y. P.; Mazaheri, A.; McGettrick, H. M.; Mondal, S. M.; Naylor, A. J.; Nixon, A.; Nicholson, T.; Partridge, J.; Pinkney, T.; Rattray, N. J. W.; Steves, C.; Tomkova, K.; Welch, C.; Jackson, T.

2026-03-23 geriatric medicine 10.64898/2026.03.19.26348863 medRxiv
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BackgroundAgeing is associated with reduced resilience to physiological stressors such as infection and surgery. This reduced resilience is believed to be underpinned by the hallmarks of ageing, the key biological mechanisms driving the aged phenotype. Geroprotectors are drugs that are proposed to slow down the ageing process and promote longevity and healthspan. Despite this, mechanistic studies in healthy older adults are lacking. Methods and AnalysisThis trial will test the hypothesis that geroprotectors targeted towards biological mechanisms associated with poor resilience can reverse these pathways within a three-week period. Three geroprotectors with a good safety profile in older adults and evidence of effect on the hallmarks of ageing will be administered to 60 (30 female; 30 male) adults 70+. Participants will be randomised to one of three arms (Metformin MR 1500mg, Fisetin 100mg or Spermidine 15mg). Participants will be extensively clinically characterised at baseline. Blood, abdominal adipose tissue and stool samples will be taken at baseline and following the three-week intervention. The primary research question will answer whether a three-week course of Metformin, Spermidine, or Fisetin reduce the number of senescent cells as measured by SA-{beta}-GAL in adipose biopsies in healthy older volunteers. Additionally, there will be assessment of the effect of the geroprotectors on other hallmarks of ageing, including autophagy, immunosenescence, chronic inflammation, dysregulated mTOR signalling, epigenetic age, DNA damage, dysregulated metabolism, stem cell exhaustion and microbial composition. Ethics and DisseminationEthical approval is in place (24/LO/0549). The main trial report and any sub-studies will be published in high impact peer-reviewed gerontology journals, presented at academic conferences and through a series of public engagement events. Participants enrolled in the study will be informed of the results by a written summary. Trial RegistrationREPROGRAM was registered with ISRCTN on 10/09/24. ISRCTN47919839. Available at https://www.isrctn.com/search?q=47919839. Trial Registration Data Set O_TBL View this table: org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1db6074org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1997837org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@a39a11org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@d7e6eforg.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@7a5b7f_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_TBL O_FLOATNOTable 1C_FLOATNO O_TABLECAPTIONTrial Registration Data Set C_TABLECAPTION C_TBL

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Effectiveness of 2025-2026 mRNA-1283 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccines Against COVID-19 Related Hospitalizations and Medically-Attended COVID-19 Among Adults Aged >= 65 years in the United States

Vicic, N.; Bogdanov, A.; Hensler, H.; Ryan, T.; Zeng, N.; Beck, E.; Patry, E.; Bonafede, M.; Araujo, A. B.; Wilson, A.

2026-04-16 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.13.26350772 medRxiv
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BackgroundThe 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccine season introduced updated formulations targeting the LP.8.1 lineage. This study assessed the absolute vaccine effectiveness (aVE) of mRNA-1283 and BNT162b2 on COVID-19 outcomes in adults aged [&ge;]65 years. MethodsThis retrospective study used linked electronic health record and administrative claims data through Jan 31, 2026. Adults [&ge;]65 years who received the mRNA-1283 or BNT162b2 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccine were matched to unvaccinated individuals. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was applied to each vaccines matched cohorts to balance covariates. Each vaccine was evaluated independently against its own unvaccinated comparator group. aVE against COVID-19 related hospitalization and medically-attended COVID-19 was estimated using Cox proportional hazards models; aVE = 100 x (1 - hazard ratio [HR]). ResultsWe identified 233,072 mRNA-1283 recipients and 422,610 BNT162b2 recipients [&ge;]65 years. The aVE (95% confidence interval) of mRNA-1283 against COVID-19 related hospitalization and medically-attended COVID-19 was 59.3% (39.0%, 72.9%) and 42.0% (35.0%, 48.3%) among adults [&ge;]65 years and 66.9% (45.9 %, 79.8%) and 50.2% (42.1%, 57.2%) in [&ge;]75 years, respectively. The aVE of BNT162b2 against COVID-19 related hospitalization and medically-attended COVID-19 was 48.3% (32.4%, 60.5%) and 41.2% (36.2%, 45.8%) in [&ge;]65 years and 45.9% (26.0%, 60.4%) and 44.0% (37.8%, 49.6%) in [&ge;]75 years, respectively. ConclusionsThis is the first real-world evidence showing that mRNA-1283 prevents COVID-19-related hospitalizations and medically attended events in vulnerable older adults at highest risk of severe disease. These findings support mRNA-1283 as an important public health tool for reducing the ongoing burden of COVID-19.

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Pharmacotherapy for Depression in Long-Term Care: A Real-World EHR Study

Saumur, T.; Mathers, K. E.; Ashraf, H.; Wagner, B. L.

2026-03-16 geriatric medicine 10.64898/2026.03.13.26348347 medRxiv
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ObjectivesTo evaluate rates of treatment for depression and identify resident- and facility-level predictors of pharmacotherapy among long-term care (LTC) residents in the United States. DesignRetrospective, observational study. Setting and ParticipantsElectronic health record data from 1,675,873 LTC residents in the PointClickCare Life Sciences database (January-April 2025) were reviewed and 358,425 skilled nursing facility residents with a documented depression diagnosis were identified. MethodsResidents were classified as treated/untreated based on having a medication order for pharmacological depression treatment within medication classes recommended by the American Psychological Association. Descriptive analyses incorporated demographic and clinical characteristics, and multivariable logistic regression estimated odds of treatment. ResultsOverall, 81.7% of residents diagnosed with depression had [&ge;]1 pharmacological depression treatment order. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (59.8%) and miscellaneous antidepressants (42.3%) were the most frequently used classes. Treatment rates were similar across depression diagnoses. Higher odds of receiving treatment were observed among residents also diagnosed with vascular dementia and those with hyperlipidemia medication orders. Lower odds were noted among residents who were Black or African American, had diabetes or hyperlipidemia diagnoses, or resided in facilities located in areas with poor socioeconomic status. Conclusions and ImplicationsMost residents with depression had at least one recommended pharmacologic therapy, although important disparities remain. Racial differences, comorbid conditions, and facility context continue to influence treatment access. These findings support the need for improved screening practices, greater attention to equity in prescribing, and strengthened clinical resources in socially vulnerable settings to enhance the quality of depression care in LTC facilities. Brief SummaryDepression is common in long-term care (LTC) and is associated with poor functional and clinical outcomes, however recent treatment patterns are not well understood. Using electronic health record data from 1,675,873 U.S. LTC residents between January and April 2025, 358,425 skilled nursing facility residents were identified with a documented depression diagnosis. The use of antidepressant medication was assessed based on medication order history and was aligned with American Psychological Association recommendations. Overall, 81.7% had at least one pharmacologic treatment order for depression; selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (59.8%) and miscellaneous antidepressants (42.3%) were most frequently used. After adjusting for covariates, lower odds of treatment were observed among Black or African American residents and among residents in facilities located in more socioeconomically vulnerable areas. These findings highlight persistent inequities in depression pharmacotherapy in LTC and support efforts to strengthen depression assessment and ensure equitable access to evidence-informed treatment across facilities.

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Early economic modelling of a new pharmacotherapeutic treatment pathway for children with monogenic obesity

Dixon, P.; Stewart, H.; Onyimadu, O.; Lim, D. B.; Davis, N.

2026-05-17 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.13.26353098 medRxiv
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Background Early onset obesity in children, almost always accompanied by significant health complications, may be driven by rare genetic variants that influence appetite, metabolism, and nutrient absorption. Traditional treatment approaches are usually insufficient for those with monogenic obesity of this type. Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists, such as semaglutide, and related drugs such as melanocortin 4 receptor agonists, have emerged as promising first-line treatments for severe obesity. There is no established protocol or pathway in England for identifying children with monogenic obesity who could benefit from these and similar treatments Methods We undertook early economic modelling to examine the cost-effectiveness, from a health service perspective, of implementing a new pharmacotherapeutic care pathway for the identification and treatment of monogenic obesity in children. We modelled a hypothetical population of children with hyperphagia and body mass index (BMI) three standard deviations above mean values for age and sex. We evaluated the clinical decision to initiate the pathway using a decision tree model with patient quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and NHS healthcare costs 12 months from an initial clinic visit as outcomes, and calculated incremental cost effectiveness ratios and a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. Results Both costs and QALYs were higher under further investigation (GBP3,247 and 0.47 QALYs) compared to no further investigation (GBP1,589 and 0.24 QALYs). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in the base case was GBP7,133 per QALY. Further examination of these children was therefore likely to be cost effective in this model. Conclusion A decision-tree model suggested that further investigation of severely obese children potentially eligible for treatment with semaglutide is likely to be cost-effective for the NHS. However, this result is associated with uncertainty arising from a lack of evidence for many key model parameters.

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Biological age acceleration and the dynamic progression of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic diseases to multimorbidity, dementia and mortality: A prospective cohort study

zeng, p.; Yuan, G.

2026-04-07 geriatric medicine 10.64898/2026.04.07.26350289 medRxiv
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Background: The role of biological age acceleration (BioAgeAccel) in the dynamic progression from single cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic disease (CKMD) to multimorbidity, and subsequently to dementia and mortality remains elusive. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal study with data of 433,911 UK Biobank participants. Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic multimorbidity (CKMM) was defined as the coexistence of two or more CKMDs, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), stroke, type 2 diabetes (T2D), and chronic kidney disease. Biological aging was measured via PhenoAge and KDM-BA. Multistate models examined the association between BioAgeAccel and disease transitions, ranging from healthy to the first occurrence of CKMD (FCKMD), then progression to CKMM, dementia, and mortality. Restricted mean survival time estimated the disease transition time or life expectancy between states. Results: BioAgeAccel was significantly associated with increased risks across all disease transitions. Specifically, during CKMM progression, the hazard ratios (HRs) of the transition from healthy to FCKMD were 1.24 [95%CI 1.23-1.25] for PhenoAgeAccel and 1.16 [1.15-1.17] for KDM-BA-Accel. For subsequent transition to CKMM, the HRs were 1.20 [1.18-1.22] and 1.19 [1.17-1.21], respectively. In dementia-related transitions, PhenoAgeAccel showed the higher risk for CKMM to dementia (HR=1.13 [1.04-1.22]) than for the transition from healthy or from FCKMD to dementia. These associations were further moderated by age, physical activity, educational, and lifestyle factors. BioAgeAccel also accelerated disease progression and reduced life expectancy; for example, during CKMM progression, BioAgeAccel shortened the time between disease transitions by about 1.09 years from healthy to FCKMD, and an additional 1.75 years to CKMM. Regarding life expectancy, individuals with CKMM experienced an average reduction of about 1.36 years under PhenoAge, while those with dementia showed a decrease of about 0.77 years. Among individuals with CVD or T2D as the initial diagnosis, the impact of BioAgeAccel on progression to CKMM or dementia was stronger. Conclusions: BioAgeAccel exerts significant promotive role in the onset of CKMD and their subsequent progression to CKMM, dementia, and mortality, helping identify high-risk individuals. Implementing biological age assessments and health lifestyle interventions in middle-aged populations serves as an effective strategy for alleviating the burden of CKMDs and dementia.

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Explaining socioeconomic inequalities in antibiotic prescribing for common infections in English primary care: a population-based study

Yang, M.; Nguyen, V. N.; Walker, A. S.; Robotham, J. V.; van Leeuwen, E.; Hayward, G.; Butler, C. C.; Pouwels, K. B.

2026-05-27 health economics 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354118 medRxiv
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OBJECTIVES To quantify socioeconomic inequalities in antibiotic prescribing for common infections in primary care, and assess whether these inequalities arise from differences in consultation frequency, prescribing behaviour, or variation in vaccination uptake, smoking, and body mass index. DESIGN Population based cohort study. SETTING Primary care data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink, England. PARTICIPANTS 17,195,399 children and adults estimated to have been registered with a general practice in 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Antibiotic prescribing rates (prescriptions per person-year), consultation rates (consultations per person-year), and probability of receiving an antibiotic prescription following consultation. RESULTS Higher deprivation was associated with higher antibiotic prescribing rates for most respiratory tract indications. In children, prescribing rates were 44.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 41.9% to 47.7%) higher for upper respiratory tract infections and 47.6% (95% CI 44.2% to 51.3%) higher for lower respiratory tract infections in the most versus least deprived twentile. In adults, prescribing rates for lower respiratory tract infections were 22.7% (95% CI 21.4% to 24.1%) higher in the most deprived twentile. Prescribing rates for other indications showed weak, U-shaped, or negative associations with deprivation. Prescribing inequalities were primarily driven by inequalities in consultation rates rather than probability of receiving antibiotics once consulted. Lower influenza vaccination uptake partly accounted for higher consultation rates for respiratory infections among more deprived children, while smoking prevalence contributed to inequalities among adults. CONCLUSIONS Socioeconomic inequalities in antibiotic prescribing vary by indication type and are largely explained by consultation frequency. Reducing inequalities may require interventions that decrease the need to consult, e.g. improving influenza vaccination coverage in children and reducing smoking among adults, rather than focussing solely on prescribing behaviour.